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About Bayesian P-Value Interpreter

Calculate probability of outcomes of clinical trials, by interpreting reported p-values in the context of scientific expectations, using prior probabilities of outcomes and Bayesian thinking. · p-values are frequently misused and misinterpreted ( see American Statistical Association statement on p-values) · Bayesian inference aids interpretation of p-values with reference to prior knowledge of the probability of the experimental outcome · P-value Interpreter permits realistic interpretation of reported p-values from user entered pre-trial probabilities of clinical trial outcomes and p-values for single and sequential trials · "Learn more" buttons lead to explanations of prior probabilities, p-values and Bayesian probabilities employed in calculating the direct probability of the trial outcomes (e.g. null hypothesis being false), illustrated with examples

What’s new

Version 2.5 · Updated June 19, 2026

Prior Sensitivity Analysis! • Not sure about your prior? A new Sensitivity panel instantly shows the posterior across a range of priors centered on your input, so you can see at a glance how much your starting assumption matters. Deeper sequential workflows! • Select any row from the Sensitivity table and continue directly into a Sequential Analysis starting from that scenario, no manual copying of numbers. • A new Probability Summary chart now displays four bars — your original prior, the first posterior, the discounted prior used for the sequential analysis, and the final posterior — so you can see exactly how the evidence and your discounting choices shape each step. Progressive "Add Analysis" layout! • The calculator now builds up on demand. Run your main calculation, then add a Sensitivity or Sequential panel only when you need it, keeping the screen clean for straightforward cases. New app icon! UI/UX polish and bug fixes! (again) • Tightened spacing and typography across the calculator, settings, and summary chart. • Smoother transitions when adding or removing analysis panels. • Improved overall navigation flow and fixed a highlight bug in the Sensitivity table.

App privacy

The developer, Samuel Kaplan, reported these privacy practices to Apple.

Data Not Collected

The developer does not collect any data from this app.

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