M-INDEX: Memory Cycle Index

M-INDEX summarises the memory-semiconductor cycle as one number and a four-stage alert. It recommends no stock and tells you nothing about when to buy or sell. What it does is measure how far the cycle has actually come, every day, on the same yardstick.

■ Four-stage alert
Stage 1 Memory spot price, monthly average MoM
Stage 2 Export price and volume decomposition (ON only when a unit-price drop comes WITH rising volume)
Stage 3 Company-issued guidance tone from the three DRAM makers
Stage 4 Combined capex of the four big-tech firms - the only execution trigger

Every stage shows its trigger rule, its current value and the next verdict date. A lamp that is off still says what it measures.

■ Composite index, 0-100
Core thesis 50% + cycle confirmation 30% + value and macro 20%, weighted. The layer scores sit next to the composite, so you can see which layer moved.

■ Earnings calendar
Tap an item that has reported and you get the value this index took in as input that day - not a summary of the announcement, but the number that actually entered the index and the note recorded with it. If the input date differs from the announcement date, the screen says so first.

■ Analysis reports
Written pieces on what this index sees, and what it does not.

■ An account is optional
Every screen works without signing in. An account lets you post on the board under a name. Sign-in is through Google or Apple only and we never take a password. We store the email address and display name the provider gives us, and delete both if you close the account.

■ What we measure, written down
We look at anonymous usage statistics — which screen was opened, which section was expanded. Without knowing what never gets tapped we cannot fix the screen. This uses Google Analytics, which also makes use of the device advertising ID. There are no ads in this app and we do not use that value for advertising or marketing. Anything you type yourself, such as a board post, is never sent to analytics.

■ Prices
Prices shown are delayed or closing prices, not real time. The timestamp is always shown next to them.

This app is not investment advice. All investment decisions and their outcomes are solely the user's responsibility.